LORD OWEN COMMENTS ON PROSPECTS OF PEACE IN FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

NEW YORK/UN, Jan 27 (Hina) - British eminent diplomat, Lord David Owen, Saturday gave a lecture for the Diplomatic Corps at the United Nations in New York and the Secretariat on prospects of peace processes in the former Yugoslavia. The lecture, organized by the International Peace Academy, attracted more than 50 ambassadors and several UN undersecretaries. During a very open address Lord Owen reiterated some of his important theses, written in his recently published book on this matter, but he also expressed a few new statements which may be seen as the turnabout in his opinion on this issue. One of his crucial theses is that the Republic of Croatia is the winner in the war in the region. Lord Owen believes that the biggest losers are Croatian Serbs mostly because of their own incompetence and obstinacy. He admits that Croatia had the right to criticize the Vance plan, since the plan did not lead to the disarmament of Serbs, while Croatia showed patience. Lord Owen predicts that a very small number of Croatian Serbs will return to Croatia, and few Serb are likely to come back to the Knin area. He considers that the key of peace lays in the implementation of the agreement on eastern Slavonia (remaining occupied Croatian areas) rather than in the implementation of the Bosnia peace package. According to him, 5,000 international troops to be in place in eastern Slavonia will not be sufficient, but at the moment the quality is more important. Zagreb and Belgrade are ready to cooperate in this matter, and it is extremely important that Croatia show good-will for the stay of those Serbs who want to remain. A new forceful exodus should be averted, and Serbia should get economic aid for accommodation of Serbs who have decided to leave the area, Owen said to diplomats. Reconstruction, particularly of the town of Vukovar, is of key importance to the success of the peace plan for eastern Slavonia. It is invaluable that the Transitional Administrator of the Croatian Danubian area is an America, Lord Owen thinks. The British diplomat says that the success of the implementation of the peace agreement will depend on the resumption of negotiations on the peninsula of Prevlaka (southernmost tip of Croatia). Regardless of whether Croatian President Tudjman has pledged some concessions, it is understandable that this is an emotional question at the moment and any concession in that area may be risky and unacceptable to Tudjman. However, Lord Owen says, solutions are possible. Speaking about the Croatian-Serbian relations he says that they are a crucial part of the peace in the Balkans (implicitly, the Moslem issue is not so important). It is therefore unusually important that all the time during the conflict either direct or indirect talks have been sustained between Croatian and Serbian Presidents Tudjman and Milosevic. Owen describes the Croatian President Tudjman as realistic and rather flexible, and believes that Tudjman has got more than he has deserved. However, it is not easy to Tudjman, since he has been surrounded by men with various concepts (e.g. by Sarinic, M. Granic, Susak). On the other side, the Croatian President is very well represented at the UN. Owen assesses that the Serbian President Milosevic is not a racist (in distinction from Bosnian Serb leaders Karadzic and Krajisnik), but he is a pragmatic and a politician who the international community needs for implementation of the peace plan. Owen spoke about the importance of the International War Crimes Tribunal, based in the Hague. He says that some chief protagonist, first of all Karadzic and General Mladic, should be tried at the court, and at the same time one should have understanding for Milosevic who has problems to extradite them immediately, especially to hand over Mladic. Besides, some Croats and Moslems should also be brought to justice, as it is a precondition for reconciliation. However, Lord Owen says, a line must be drawn and "a witch-hunt" abandoned, because amnesty is more important than court. Even the status of "an isolated pariah" is sufficient moral and political punishment for some leaders. Lord Owen asserts that for the balance of power the West has prevented President Tudjman to overrun Banja Luka, what he could have done at the time. Tudjman has made a painful compromise on Mrkonjic Grad (a town in northwestern Bosnia), but in that way he broke up connection between Moslems, and linked the Cazin area with Croatia, Lord Owen estimates. Lord Owen warns diplomat not to be deluded but to realise that the peace package made in Dayton is a plan of division. The multiculture of Bosnia-Herzegovina is a myth, as this characteristic has existed only in Sarajevo, Tuzla and somewhere else. Commenting on the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina Lord Owen wished it success, because the Croat-Bosniac Federation is needed for the balance of power, and he predicts that in case of its failure three republics will be established in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Mostar is the biggest test to the success or failure of the Federation. The British diplomat says that a large-scale war has been over, but some stand-offs between Croats and Moslems can occur. Most of Serbs will not remain in Sarajevo, which will be predominantly a Moslem city as price of their (Serb) racist policies, he says. Lord Owen says the town of Brcko (northern Bosnia) is still an insoluble problem, and furthermore, a procedure of the arbitration of this problem has not been yet agreed. He thinks that it is important that Serbs may enjoy amenities of reconstruction in Bosnia but also in eastern Slavonia in order that they can be co-operative. The Dayton conference has been the "exit strategy" in the military aspects, but international factors should be present politically and financially in the region for years. The British diplomat holds that Milosevic should be given time to solve the issue of Kosovo, which is likely to end in the division between Serbia and Albania (Serbia will get mines and monasteries) He thinks that Milosevic will exit from isolation first of all through the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), as OSCE mechanisms will be used in settling the issues of Kosovo, Prevlaka, etc. Lord Owen says the American leadership is extremely important, but America continues along the way which Europe had started, and it need not claim its results. All have made mistakes - the EU, the USA, RF, all mediators: we are all accomplices in ethnic cleansing, the British diplomat says adding that the Dayton accord will foster relations between America and Europe in the future. The United Nations has been too much criticised, while they have done all in their power during mutilated mandates. The Security Council and its permanent member-countries rather than UN should be exposed to criticism, Lord Owen says. The following discussion on prospect of peace in the former Yugoslavia was held by many ambassadors, including the Croatian representative, and UN Secretariat officials. (hina) mms 271730 MET jan 96