INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - CROATIA ENTERING PERIOD OF INSTABILITY

ZAGREB, Dec 16 (Hina) - The International Crisis Group (ICG) in its latest report on Croatia assessed that turmoil among and within parties and the forthcoming elections could, after a period of uncertainty and instability, bring "positive results for the future evolution of democracy." "In the medium term, Croatia faces a period of political uncertainty and instability. With the (ruling) HDZ's (Croatian Democratic Union) position weaker than it has ever been, whether or not it can be ousted in the forthcoming elections is largely in the hands of the opposition," said the report the Brussels-based ICG issued on December 14. The ICG is a private, multinational organisation "committed to strengthening the capacity of the international community" to understand and respond to crises. The ICG grounds its political analyses on field research. It is chaired by former United States Senate Majority Leader George Mitchel, who recently brokered a peace process in Northern Ireland. "If the opposition grouping can hold together, and continue to present a credible, reliable alternative to the much discredited HDZ, then the HDZ's electoral chances appear bleak," said the report, pointing to the Croatian Peasants' Party as the weakest link in the opposition grouping. The ICG said the current negotiations on talks between six opposition parties and President Franjo Tudjman had revealed the first weaknesses in the opposition grouping. "If the HDZ were to be defeated, the outlook for the evolution of a stable democracy in Croatia would be much improved, as would the prospects for an improvement in Croatia's strained international relations," the report said. "Open international support for a particular political option in Croatia would be likely to be counterproductive." The ICG believes defeat for Tudjman's HDZ would also have very important consequences for Bosnia, as the current opposition parties would behave much more constructively towards Croatia's neighbour. The report further states that in 1998, the HDZ had "shifted firmly to the right", and that "hardliners, led by Tudjman's advisor on internal affairs, Ivic Pasalic, have emerged triumphant in the party." (hina) ha jn