If the chief prosecutor says that cooperation has improved, if her report is more positive than the previous one and if she says that the Croatian government's action plan is giving good results, the EU task force could propose a decision to the foreign ministers on opening accession talks with Croatia at the first next meeting of the Council of Ministers on 7 November, the source said.
The decision on opening talks with Croatia could be accompanied by a separate declaration that would warn Croatia about the possibility of the negotiations being suspended in case of lack of cooperation with the Hague war crimes tribunal.
The EU task force evaluating Croatia's cooperation with the tribunal meets in Luxembourg on Monday to examine whether Croatia has met the last condition for the membership talks to start. Its meeting will be followed by a regular monthly meeting of the Council of the EU which would make a decision on Croatia.
In order for this scenario to become a reality, it is necessary to remove the final obstacle to the opening of accession talks with Turkey.
Unless Turkey gets the green light, Croatia cannot expect a positive decision either, the well-informed source said.
The British EU Presidency convened an emergency meeting of foreign ministers on Sunday evening in a last-ditch attempt to adopt a negotiating framework for Turkey, without which negotiations cannot start.
After days of attempts at lower levels, the British Presidency failed to break Austria's resistance. Austria wants the negotiating framework to provide for a privileged partnership as an alternative to full membership for Turkey. It also wants membership talks with Croatia to start immediately.
The British Presidency has scheduled the opening of accession talks with Turkey for Monday at 1700 hours.