Assessing the macroeconomic situation and short-term economic outlook for Southeast Europe, the UNECE says that domestic demand is outpacing aggregate output throughout the region, as a result of which the external imbalances of many countries are escalating.
The large current account deficits are risky for immature market economies that are susceptible to external shocks, UNECE analysts said in their latest Economic Survey for Europe.
Economic growth in most Southeast European countries is expected to remain relatively strong, but at a slightly lower rate than in 2004.
The fact that the region's aggregate GDP growth rate in 2005 will be more than 2.5 percentage points lower than in 2004 mainly reflects the slowdown from exceptionally high rates in the two largest economies, Turkey (from 8.9 per cent in 2004 to 5.6 per cent in 2005) and Romania (from 8.3 to 5.5 per cent).
An average economic growth rate in Southeast Europe is expected to reach 5.4 per cent this year. The lowest growth rate is expected in Croatia (three per cent) and the highest in Bosnia-Herzegovina (six per cent).
GDP in most of Southeast Europe is expected to grow at rates between four and six per cent in 2006. The lowest rates are expected in Croatia, Macedonia, and Serbia and Montenegro (4.5 per cent) and the highest in Albania (six per cent).