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D&B rating agency forecasts Croatia's 2007 economic growth at 4.7 pct

ZAGREB, May 9 (Hina) - Croatia's economic growth in 2007 is expected to remain similar to the 2006 rate, or 4.7 per cent, while next year it is likely to drop to 4.4 per cent as the economy slows down to absorb structural changes on the country's road to EU membership, the Dun & Bradstreet credit rating agency said in its May report.
ZAGREB, May 9 (Hina) - Croatia's economic growth in 2007 is expected to remain similar to the 2006 rate, or 4.7 per cent, while next year it is likely to drop to 4.4 per cent as the economy slows down to absorb structural changes on the country's road to EU membership, the Dun & Bradstreet credit rating agency said in its May report.

Croatia's credit rating for May remained DB3d, which ranks it among mild investment risk countries.

The 2007 projections are based on the expectation that capital investment will be the main growth driver just as it was in 2006, as well as on the high level of business optimism and an increasingly competitive banking market.

D&B analysts expect continuation of personal consumption growth, which was boosted by last year's payment of pension arrears, and even greater access to credit.

Government efforts relating to fiscal consolidation are likely to be affected by the fact that 2007 is an election year, when spending controls are usually relaxed, but that should not hamper plans to reduce the general government deficit below 3 per cent of GDP in 2008, the report says.

Among significant macroeconomic indicators, the report cited figures showing that tourism revenue grew 9 per cent in 2006 to exceed EUR 6 billion.

Among the 25 rated countries from the region, Croatia is ranked eighth, with the same investment risk rating as Poland. It is preceded by the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia with a rating of DB3a and followed by Bulgaria and Romania, which are rated DB4a.

The list is topped by Slovenia with a rating of DB2b (small investment risk), while at the bottom are four countries rated DB6d (high investment risk) -- Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

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