US INSTITUTE OF PEACE RELEASES REPORT ON CROATIA

( Editorial: --> 4380 ) ZAGREB, Sept 30 (Hina) - Croatia's future lies in Europe and the country can secure such a future by concentrating on its own democratic and economic development and by not interfering with the politics in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the US Institute of Peace Working Group said in a special report entitled Croatia After Tudjman. The Working Group includes representatives of US government agencies, non-government organisations and analysts who are following the situation in the Balkans. The Group, which met a number of times in 1997 and 1998 to discuss the implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords, is headed by former US ambassador to Bosnia-Herzegovina John Menzies. In July this year, the Group met Croatian Opposition leaders and the former member of the B-H Presidency, Kresimir Zubak, during their visit to Washington. Along with its report on Croatia, the Group has also prepared special reports on the situation in Serbia and the Kosovo crisis. Among other things, the Working Group report stresses achievements of Croatian President Franjo Tudjman and the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party: an independent and internationally recognised Croatia; the establishment of control over the whole of Croatia's territory and; the beginning of post-war recovery. The possible course of Croatia's future development will go in the direction of democracy and open society, however, the next stages of that process will happen only in the post-Tudjman era, the report notes. The Working Group further foresees division within the ruling HDZ after the next parliamentary elections. According to that scenario, the HDZ's liberal wing will probably join the democratic opposition and overpower HDZ's nationalists reducing them to a political group of minor importance. The post-Tudjman regime will inherit a weak economic and democratic system. Almost any future authority will give advantage to economic and, especially, social issues, the Group notes. Croatia's aspirations in Bosnia-Herzegovina will become less important. Tudjman's departure, it is further assessed, will be of great importance for Bosnia's future, because it will probably weaken the Zagreb-Mostar axis. The Bosnian Croats will have a serious alternative to hard-line nationalism with moderate leaders like Kresimir Zubak, and Tudjman's successors will be less inclined towards giving political and economic benefits to Herzeg-Bosnia, the report notes. It is also estimated that the relations between Zagreb and Belgrade would grow more distant as the two countries would take different routes of post-war development. The report concludes with the assessment that Croatia has an opportunity to become a responsible neighbour and a partner to Europe, but to achieve this it has to stop shaping Bosnia's territory and concentrate on its own political and economic development. In that regard, the report especially stresses the return of Serb refugees, the establishment of open and independent media, the improvement of the election process under multi-party supervision, the annulment of the Zagreb-Mostar axis, the abolishment of diaspora votes and diaspora representatives in the Parliament, the reduction of presidential powers to the advantage of the Parliament and the creation of a just and transparent privatisation programme. (hina) jn rml/sp 301958 MET sep 98