ICG: ELECTIONS WILL STRENGTHEN OPPOSITION IN B-H AND MARK DOWNFALL OF SDS

OF SDS ( Editorial: --> 9208 ) SARAJEVO, Sept 9 (Hina) - The forthcoming elections in Bosnia- Herzegovina scheduled for September 12 and 13, will enable significant changes, primarily to strengthen opposition parties, International Crisis Group (ICG)representative for the Balkans Christopher Bennet said on Wednesday in Sarajevo. He presented journalists with an evaluation of the election results which had been compiled by analysts within the organisation. In an extensive document by the ICG on some fifteen pages are analysed the current achievements by the international community in implementing the Dayton agreement. Following an extensive analysis, ICG experts concluded that this year's elections will probably mark the final downfall of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS). The power enjoyed by the SDS is history and in such circumstances, Zivko Radisic - the Serb candidate of the Serb coalition "Sloga" (Unity) - will more than likely be the Serbian representative in the B-H Presidency, said Bennet. Alija Izetbegovic's victory as the Bosnian candidate for the Presidency, according to ICG, can hardly be questioned. However, the race for the Croat representative to the state leadership will be unpredictable. Even though the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) president, Ante Jelavic, is the favourite, ICG analysts believe that the president of the New Croat Initiative, Kresimir Zubak, is not without a chance, especially considering that some Bosnian Muslims and Serbs may give their votes to him. ICG foresees that within the Federation there are favourable outlooks for the opposition in the Central Bosnia, Tuzla, Sarajevo and perhaps Livno cantons. With regard to the elections for the Bosnian Serb parliament, the ICG holds that not one party will be in a position to take on the government on their own and it will be vital to form coalition alliances after the election. (Hina) sp/jn 091514 MET sep 98