RBA ANALYSTS: THIS YEAR'S INFLATION RATE OF 7.8 % IN CROATIA

ZAGREB, Nov 21 (Hina) - According to estimates given by the Zagreb- based Raiffeisenbank (RBA) experts, the inflation in Croatia will be 7.8 percent this year, with the chief generator of the eight- percent rise in manufacturing prices, while those analysts believe an inflation rate in 2001 will be four (4) percent. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase up to four percent this year, while an increase in the overall industrial output is likely to be by 1.4 percent higher as against 1999. RBA analysts have predicted the four-percent rise in the 2001 inflation rate. Next year should not see any substantial change in the exchange rate of the kuna (one German mark will remain approximately 3.9 kuna). The analysts do not expect any higher rise in the GDP owing to unknown facts about the fiscal policy. Another uncertainty in 2001 will be the realisation of income of 12 billion kuna from the privatisation. If the consolidated budget is considered without privatisation, its deficit is likely to be 7.8 percent this year and 6.4 percent next year and analysts advise that the construction of the budget should be closed prior to the income from the privatisation. RBA Management member Velimir Sonje and the head of the Raiffeisen's research projects, Ante Zigman, on Tuesday presented the first issue of "RBAnaliza", a journal which will be published every three months by Raiffeisenbank Austria dd Zagreb. The first issue of this quarterly gives a survey of 14 selected macroeconomic indicators and expectations which ensue from them. An Internet publication of monthly RBA analyses was today announced for each third Friday in the month. (hina) ms