Of the countries and provinces caught up in the serious conflicts after the break-up of Yugoslavia in 1991, only Croatia is a truly stable country, Joseph writes.
Elsewhere in the Balkans, ethnic groups continue to watch one another with caution, Joseph writes in the January/February 2005 edition of the magazine. Following the extradition of former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to the UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague, the region has mostly disappeared from the international community's radar screen, the author says, calling on the US and the EU not to allow problems to grow and postpone their solution.
Joseph spent more than ten years in the Balkans as a member of the US army and the United Nations, he headed the international crisis group for Macedonia between 2001 and 2003, and has lately been working at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson institute.
Although he believes that South-East Europe is not likely to revert to the horrors of the past century, Joseph estimates that the region could continue to generate unrest arising from outstanding ethnic problems in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia and Serbia. The main problem in the Balkans is Kosovo, which remains a hot spot that may set the region on fire, says Joseph.
The ethic violence in Kosovo in March and in Macedonia in July has surprised international officials and revealed deep ethnic divisions and tension between Albanians and Serbs and Albanians and Macedonians. Nine years after the establishment of international administration in Bosnia-Herzegovina, ethnic divisions are still present. Solutions from the Dayton peace agreement have become dysfunctional.
Central institutions of authority are not functioning because Bosnia's Serbs and Croats fear that those institutions could grow stronger under the domination of Muslims, Joseph writes.
The author believes that Washington and its European allies could still help solve problems in the region if they adopt a united approach. The key to solving outstanding ethnic problems in Kosovo, Bosnia and Macedonia is the acceptance of the principle of fair treatment of minorities, Joseph believes.
As regards Kosovo, the Contact Group for the former Yugoslavia (consisting of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Great Britain and the EU) should start tackling the status of the province because failing to define it only generates insecurity in the region, Joseph says. A wise compromise would be to give Kosovo independence with significant international governance, declare the now divided Mitrovica a united and open town with international supervision, establish cantons and municipalities for ethnic Serbs to include the main Serb historical and religious sites, and offer ethnic Serbs special relations with Serbia, Joseph says.
Joseph sees the solution to the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina in transforming Sarajevo into an 'open district' like Brcko and in granting the now few marginalised Serbs and Croats equal shares of political and economic authority, which he says would encourage other members of the two communities to start returning.
As for Macedonia, Joseph believes that the country should prepare for the solution of Kosovo's status. Particularly useful for Macedonia would be accelerated consideration of its admission to NATO. At the same time, Washington and Brussels would have to continue guaranteeing the rights which ethnic Albanians were granted with the Ohrid agreement and exert pressure on the government to remove the concerns of local minorities, Joseph says.