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EU task force to meet representatives of Croatia, ICTY on April 26

ZAGREB, April 12 (Hina) - The EU task force to determine the degree ofCroatia's cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for theformer Yugoslavia (ICTY) will hold its first meeting in Luxembourg onApril 26, the EU's Luxembourg presidency confirmed on Tuesday.
ZAGREB, April 12 (Hina) - The EU task force to determine the degree of Croatia's cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) will hold its first meeting in Luxembourg on April 26, the EU's Luxembourg presidency confirmed on Tuesday.

The task force consists of representatives of the current EU chair Luxembourg, the two countries to take over the rotating six-month presidency of the EU - Great Britain and Austria - as well as the EU's High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, and Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

According to a source from the EU Presidency, the five-member task force will hold a meeting and then meet separately with representatives of Croatia and the Hague-based ICTY.

The office of the ICTY Chief Prosecutor confirmed that Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte would attend the meeting.

Even if the task force concludes that Croatia is cooperating fully with the ICTY, the commencement of accession negotiations is likely to be delayed by at least a few months, it is stated in an analysis of the international independent consulting agency Oxford Analytica, published on the web site seeurope.net.

Although it will find the delay unwelcome, Croatia could benefit from more time for technical preparations, the analysis says.

The duty of the task force, established after the postponement of EU entry talks that were to have begun on March 17, is to decide if Croatia is fully cooperating with the tribunal since the issue of full cooperation between Zagreb and the ICTY, that is, of the runaway general Ante Gotovina, was cited as the reason for the postponement of the talks.

However, a rapid solution is unlikely. Prime Minister Ivo Sanader will find it politically difficult to hand over Gotovina - even assuming that he could be easily caught and arrested - owing to extremely high levels of support for the general among the public and within his Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).

However, Sanader's current position is losing him support among moderate voters, for whom the EU accession progress appeared to be the government's only tangible achievement, reads the analysis.

The ICTY will lobby the European Council to remain staunch, since any compromise would send the wrong message to such neighbours as Serbia and Montenegro, where cooperation with the ICTY is also reluctant, reads the document.

Gotovina aside, there are reasons to doubt whether Croatia is adequately prepared to start accession negotiations: the negotiating team has been hastily assembled and some individuals are unlikely to be fully prepared on their subjects, even though chief negotiator Vladimir Drobnjak is an experienced diplomat and negotiator, it is said.

A short delay in starting negotiations might thus be seen as a reprieve, allowing the negotiating team more time to prepare. In any case, Croatia's efforts to harmonise legislation and prepare for accession are continuing. The country is implementing its Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, which entered into force on February 1 - its fulfilment is integral to the process, reads the analysis.

When negotiations finally begin, attention is likely to turn to Croatia's economic readiness to join the EU. The trade provisions of the SAA already allow Croatia unlimited duty-free access to the EU market for virtually all products (fisheries and wine products are the main exceptions).

However, Croatia has committed to phase out tariffs on the import of EU industrial products only by 2007, and to reduce tariffs for agricultural products by the same date. A number of indicators suggest that Croatian industry is ill-equipped to compete with EU producers, according to the analysis.

When Croatia is given the go-ahead to start EU accession negotiations, attention is likely to shift to the economic impact of joining the single market. This could provide the necessary pressure to undertake painful economic reforms, for which the political will has long been lacking, reads the document.

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