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Bank economists predict GDP to grow 0.1 pct in 2014

Autor: half
ZAGREB, Dec 26 (Hina) - Economists of the leading banks in Croatia expect real gross domestic product to grow 0.1 per cent on average in 2014, predicting personal and public consumption to decline and an increase in investments and exports.

The predictions of the economists of the six leading banks were released by the Croatian Banking Association in an outlook entitled "2014 - another difficult year".

Their predictions of an average growth of 0.1% are lower than other predictions.

The Croatian National Bank predicts that GDP will grow 0.7% in 2014, Zagreb's Institute of Economics predicts a growth of 1%, the government 1.3%, and the European Commission 0.5%.

Four of the six economists predict a decline in personal consumption and five in public consumption, 0.2% and 0.8% on average respectively.

They predict that investments might grow 2.1% and exports 1.5% on average. Five of six predict that investments and exports will grow in 2014.

They do not forecast a stronger unemployment growth, predicting an unemployment rate of 17.7%.

They expects a stagnation in real salaries (+0.1% on average), and a 2.5% inflation.

Fiscal pessimism remains, with the GDP deficit predicted at 5.4% on average.

The public debt-GDP ratio exceeds the Maastricht limits. Public debt is predicted to be around 65% of GDP at the end of 2014, excluding state guarantees and the Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development, or nearly 80% if they are included.

The lack of a marked growth in domestic demand explains the prediction that the balance of payments will remain stable (-0.4% of GDP). The external debt is predicted to amount to 103% of GDP.

The six economists do not expect the average euro-kuna exchange rare to rise above one euro to 7.6 kuna.

(Hina) ha

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