ICG: NATO'S WITHDRAWAL FROM BOSNIA WOULD RENEW CONFLICT

( Editorial: --> 8515 ) SARAJEVO, Dec 15 (Hina) - The International Crisis Group on Monday warned that a conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina could be renewed by advocates of separatist and centralist political solutions. The ICG is a non-government organisation which analyses the implementation of the Dayton peace agreement in Bosnia on a regular basis. In a report issued today, the ICG points out to two possible scenarios for the renewal of the conflict, which might occur only in case the NATO withdraws from Bosnia-Herzegovina. According to one, the Bosniak-Muslim side would try to take advantage of the geographical vulnerability of the Bosnian Serb entity and reclaim the lost territory. In that case, the ICG points out, the Bosnian Croat side would most probably demand secession from the Croat-Muslim Bosnian Federation. The other scenario envisages the possibility of numerous renewed local incidents and ethnic conflicts, which would bring to an escalation of violence. The ICG points out there is no alternative to NATO's stay in Bosnia. The force to follow the Stabilisation Force must not be significantly reduced in number and must include U.S. units, it said. (hina) ha mm 151637 MET dec 97