The DZS national bureau of statistics is due to release its initial estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2014 later this coming week, and eight macroeconomists polled by Hina forecast an average annual growth of 0.2%.
Four of the respondents projected growth of between 0.1% and 1%, three expected stagnation, and one predicted a decline of 0.3% in relation to the same period of 2013. If their projections proved correct, it would be the first time GDP has grown after 12 straight quarters of decline.
"Looking at the latest economic indicators - a positive contribution from net exports, as well as favourable trends in personal consumption and industrial production - it is no longer unrealistic to expect a positive GDP growth rate in the final quarter of last year," one of the macroeconomists said.
According to DZS figures, retail sales increased in the last five months of 2014, jumping by 2.6% in December, the highest rise since mid-2013. Retail sales in the last quarter of 2014, compared with the same period of 2013, went up by 2.3%.
Industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2014 increased by 3.6% in relation to the same period of 2013. In December it jumped by 5.3%, the highest increase since the outbreak of recession in 2009.
In 2014, exports rose by 8.4% year on year to HRK 78.7 billion, while imports reached HRK 129.7 billion, up 3.7%. The macroeconomists said this was mainly due to a pickup in the economic growth of the European Union, Croatia's main trading partner.
On the other hand, declines in investment and government spending could have a negative impact on GDP growth. "We expect a further decrease in investment, as indicated by figures from the construction sector which is still in a deep recession," the macroeconomists said.