FINANCE MINISTRY DRAWING UP TWO VARIANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

ZAGREB, Oct 16 (Hina) - Croatia's finance ministry is drawing up two possible variants of the national economic growth in 2002: a conservative variant with the growth rate between 3 and 3.5 percent and an optimistic one with the rate between 4.2 to 4.5 percent, because of the effects of the expected deceleration of the world economy. The ministry is also working on a draft budget for next year, which is likely to be based on the conservative variant, although experts do not give up more optimistic estimates about economic growth, all the more because of the assessment that Croatia could be affected by the world economy's recession less than some other regions. The expected deceleration of the annual economic growth and possible recession in important world regions, in the wake of the September terrorist attacks in the United States and the latest developments, will affect Croatia to some degree, but it has several possibilities to neutralise bad effects. Finance Minister Mato Crkvenac believes that the effects on the Croatian economy could be less painful than they seem now, judging from the current state of affairs in the world. An analysis of the debts which companies and individuals incur by failing to pay pension and health care contributions is near completion. The debts, accumulated over the past years, have come to the amount of 20 billion kuna (approximately 2.4 billion US dollars). According to real expectations, about 10 percent of this sum could be settled in 2002. (hina) sb ms