The basic scenario, considered the likeliest, envisages a stagnation of real GDP, or a growth of 0.3 per cent, and maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate in relation to the euro.
A shock-scenario, which tests resilience to an unlikely but possible combination of shocks, envisages an average 3.6% decline of real GDP, a tougher recession in the euro zone, worsening financing conditions for banks, and a cumulative depreciation of the kuna of 10%.
In the basic scenario, non-performing loans could account for 17.5% of all loans at the end of 2013, up from 14.05% at the end of last year. In the shock-scenario, the share of non-performing loans would jump to 25.2%.
The corporate portfolio would account for 31% of non-performing loans in the basic scenario and 47% in the shock-scenario.
In retail banking, consumer loans would reach 14% in the basic and 17% in the shock-scenario, while the share of non-performing housing loans would rise to 7.1% in the basic and 11.5% in the shock-scenario.
Banks' projected net revenue in the basic scenario would grow from 2012 and be more than enough to absorb the shock of value corrections, whereas in the shock-scenario, projected net revenue would decline 15%, while capital adequacy would decline 2% as a result of a potential depreciation of the kuna. In the basic scenario, capital adequacy would rise 2.7%.
In the shock-scenario, unless measures were taken, the capital adequacy of 13 banks, accounting for 9.5% of total assets, would be below 12%, while that of five banks accounting for 2% of total assets would be below 8%.