The ERM allows the fluctuation of national currencies in relation to the euro of 15 percent at the most, and maintaining such stability is much easier in countries with small and undeveloped foreign exchange markets, like Slovenia, than in big countries such as the Czech Republic or Hungary. Those countries have developed foreign exchange markets and many big players in them, and it has been very difficult for their central banks to maintain stability and not provoke attempts of speculative attacks on the domestic currency for the last two years, Vujcic said.
Of the transition countries which have joined the EU, only smaller countries have entered the ERM, and the only bigger country is Slovakia.
Two years since admission, the five macroeconomic criteria from Maastricht are met only by Slovenia, which on Thursday fixed the tolar exchange rate to the euro and will join the EMU on 1 January 2007. On the other hand, Lithuania failed to meet the set criteria by only several percentage points.
In this regard, Croatia is somewhere in the middle - according to size and solvency and the presence of big players, its foreign exchange market is more developed than in Slovenia, but smaller than Hungary's.
Rules that are being applied for admission to the EU and the ERM today are more difficult than rules that 'old' EU members had to meet and it is expected that they will additionally change and become more complex upon Bulgaria's and Romania's entry, and later upon Croatia's entry, it was said at the closing round table debate "The Eurozone Eight Years Later: Lessons for Future Members".
Vujcic said that Croatia was expected to introduce the euro 2-3 years upon its admission to the EU.
Participants in the round table debate said that an analysis on the effects of the Eurozone on investments, trade etc. was difficult to draw up after only eight years, but that it was clear that financial markets were recording only positive results, such as much faster growth of the bonds market.
Despite estimates saying that the introduction of the euro has contributed to export growth and a decrease in imports in relation to EU members which did not introduce the euro (Denmark, Sweden, Great Britain), it is too early to talk about real effects and it cannot be concluded that the euro does not contribute to commerce and investment, particularly because it is difficult to identify the effects of the euro and the effects of other factors, which eventually bear more weight.