Retail sales in Croatia went up by 2.6% in real terms and 1.1% in nominal terms in December 2014, compared with December 2013, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (DZS) released on Wednesday.
These figures on rising consumption for the fifth straight month in parallel with the recent statistics on a rise in industrial production for four months in a row to reach +5.3% in December, a record high since the outbreak of the recession in 2009, give rise to hope of positive economic change, however, two analysts polled by Hina warned that it was too early to conclude that the country might start emerging from the recession in the last quarter of 2014.
"In spite of rising consumption and industrial production, I expect economic activity continued to fall also in Q4 2014, as Gross Domestic Product is still burdened by stagnant investments and state spending," Splitska Banka's chief economist Zdeslav Santic told Hina.
Although being the highest rise in the last year and a half, a 2.6% rise in retail sales is insufficient to trigger positive change. It could only cushion the decline in GDP in Q4 2014 to -0.3% on the year, Santic said.
He hopes that the economy may start rising as of mid-2015, with tourism giving an added impetus to positive growth, and foresees +0.2% for 2015.
On the other hand, Raiffeisenbank Austria analyst Zrinka Zivkovic-Matijevic expects the stagnation of Croatia's economy in 2015.
She warns that the latest figures on growing retail sales were good but did not represent the only indicator of personal consumption.
While industrial output is rising, the construction sector keeps contracting, which is why this analyst does not believe that GDP will rebound in 2015.
She told Hina that conditions had not been yet created for viable growth, corroborating her statement with statistics that after a double-digit rise in exports in H1 2014, this rise decelerated in H2.
"True, industrial production is rising, but it is still 17% lower compared to the pre-crisis 2008," Zivkovic-Matijevic said.