In order to avoid that scenario, the Croatian companies on the CEFTA market are preparing a new export regime. Agriculture Minister Tihomir Jakovina recently formed the Food Industry Council which will propose measures and legislation regarding Croatia's CEFTA exit.
When it joins the EU market, Croatia will apply European market prices to its products and have 500 million consumers for them. Croatia has 25 million consumers on the CEFTA market, which accounted for 20 per cent of its exports in 2011 (EUR 1.7 billion), double the amount of imports.
According to Croatian business people, some Croatian companies will not feel the transition from one trade regime to another, while other companies' exports on the CEFTA market will become more expensive because of EU regulations. This market comprises Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania, Moldova and Kosovo.
Croatian export costs to Macedonia could be twice as expensive and those to Serbia and Bosnia three time more expensive.
Speaking to Hina, the Adris tobacco and tourism group's corporate communications director, Predrag Grubic, said that upon Croatia's CEFTA exit, the duty on Croatian cigarettes would rise from 15 to 57% in Serbia, from 0 to 15% in Bosnia, from 27 to 42% in Macedonia and from 0 to 10% in Kosovo.
He said it was extremely important to Croatia's leading companies that the government negotiate with EU institutions conditions that would enable Croatian exporters to continue growing.
On the other hand, Atlantic Grupa, a food, drug and general merchandise company, says Croatia's EU entry and CEFTA exit will not significantly impact its business.
The company began aligning with European standards before the Stabilisation and Association Agreement and is aligned with the highest business norms, internal communications and projects director Fedja Hudina told Hina.
He said the group has production plants in Croatia, Germany, Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia and Macedonia, so EU accession will not obstruct sales.
CEFTA was founded in 1992 and its market had 90 million people, extending from the Baltic to the Adriatic and the Black Sea. In the meantime, some of the member countries joined the EU and the market shrank to 25 million consumers, accounting for 0.2-0.3% of the global trade.
In 2006, the CEFTA countries signed a treaty to continue developing relations with the EU and conducting trade in line with World Trade Organisation regulations, whether they were WTO members or not. That December, the then ten CEFTA countries initialled a CEFTA enlargement treaty.
The end of 2008 marked the end of a period of gradual reduction of customs duties in industrial trade, while in late 2010 Albania, Montenegro, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldova and Serbia initialled an additional protocol with new concessions in the trade in agricultural and products.
Croatia is scheduled to join the EU on July 1 and will likely not join the eurozone until 2016. Two criteria need to be met to join the eurozone - the fiscal deficit must not exceed three per cent of gross domestic product and the public debt must not exceed 60% of GDP.