AT LEAST 60 PERCENT OF BOSNIAN RESIDENTS LIVE IN POVERTY

SARAJEVO, Nov 19 (Hina) - At least 60 percent of Bosnian residents live below the poverty level. The general social breakdown in the country is being avoided exclusively owing to the "grey economy" which includes the spending of a great number of foreigners temporarily residing in Bosnia, the UN Independent Bureau for Humanitarian Issues (IBHI) in Bosnia estimates. In an interview to Sarajevo's "Oslobodjenje" daily, the IBHI's director, Zarko Papic, said that the 60 percent estimate was quite optimistic. "These are just estimates, but the number of those living below the lower level of poverty could revolve around 84 percent," Papic said. All realistic perimeters - economic development, institutional organisation, social welfare system - show that Bosnia is on the verge of a social breakdown. This still has not happened because of the "grey economy". A significant portion of residents have unregistered income, such as money sent to them by relatives from abroad. On the other hand, a great number of foreigners in Bosnia with their spending help maintain the illusion of a normal situation. According to IBHI's assessments, transitional processes and continuing privatisation could hardly make the situation in Bosnia worse, because the unemployment level as such cannot notably increase. Only the discontinuation of foreign financial help could possibly cause problems. While the help still lasts, Bosnia must make efforts to reform its social sector as soon as possible, because the situation could get far worse within the next ten years. The possible dissatisfaction could easily be abused politically, and it is realistic to assume this is an opportunity which nationalist political forces are counting on, Papic said. (hina) np