ZAGREB, Jan 1 (Hina) - Croatia's Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter of 2003 saw a real increase of only 3.9 percent compared to the same period in 2002. This is a significant slow-down in relation to the first two quarters of
2003, the State Statistics Bureau reported on Tuesday.
ZAGREB, Jan 1 (Hina) - Croatia's Gross Domestic Product in the third
quarter of 2003 saw a real increase of only 3.9 percent compared to
the same period in 2002. This is a significant slow-down in relation
to the first two quarters of 2003, the State Statistics Bureau
reported on Tuesday. #L#
In the first quarter of 2003, GDP grew by 4.9 percent in real terms
and in the second quarter it increased by five percent. The 3.9
percent growth rate in the third quarter is the lowest in the last
seven quarters.
This slow-down is faster than expected by some analysts.
Data on the calculation of the quarterly GDP according to consumption
categories show that the slow-down was caused to a great extent by a
continued decrease of the personal consumption growth rate, which in
the third quarter of 2003 rose by 3.4 percent compared to the same
period in 2002. The real increase of personal consumption in the first
quarter of 2003 was 4.9 percent, and in the second quarter it was 4.7
percent. The 3.4 percent growth of personal consumption in the third
quarter was the lowest in the last eight quarters.
The highest growth rates were recorded in capital investments, which
rose by 17.6 percent in the third quarter.
The trend of falling government spending continued, with a real drop
of 0.7 percent in the third quarter.
The export of goods and services grew by 8.3 percent, while imports
grew by 11.1 percent, exports being higher than imports in the third
quarter, thanks to good tourism results.
Quarterly data on gross added value according to areas of activity
show high growth rates in the construction industry (21.1 percent) and
the hotel and catering sector (10.5 percent).
Analysts say that the early indicators of stagnating personal
consumption have affected the final calculation of GDP more than
expected.
Analysts with Raiffeisenbank warn that the slowing down of personal
consumption growth shows that the effects of opening big chains of
stores have worn off and expect it to continue.
Since capital investments were mostly made by the state and were
directed into road construction and financed with foreign loans, the
analysts doubt that they will continue to grow, particularly not at
the 2003 rate of 17.3 percent.
They warn about the need to bear in mind that the slowing down of the
growth of GDP will affect a number of other indicators, such as the
share of the balance of payments deficit in GDP or the share of the
budgetary deficit in GDP or, which is very worrying, the share of the
foreign debt in GDP. The analysts believe that GDP in the third
quarter clearly shows that the new government has taken over a
receding economy.
(Hina) rml